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The poverty-test-score correlation, state by state

How tightly free/reduced lunch share predicts test outcomes in each US state.

May 25, 2026
KEY FINDING
Free/reduced lunch share is the single strongest predictor of school test-score performance in the United States, but the strength of the relationship varies by state. In some states the correlation explains 70%+ of variance; in others, demographic and policy factors weaken it substantially.
States with coverage
44
Strongest correlation
r = -0.89
CT · 79% of variance explained
Direction
Negative
higher FRL → lower proficiency
POVERTY-PROFICIENCY CORRELATION BY STATE
StateSchoolsPearson rR² (%)Avg % FRLAvg proficient
Connecticut734-0.88678.5%45.5%48.9%
Rhode Island276-0.84170.6%53.3%34.4%
Washington1,928-0.80965.5%50.6%45.6%
Colorado1,543-0.80164.1%49.0%37.3%
California7,715-0.863.9%64.0%41.2%
Maryland1,288-0.79663.4%53.4%43.8%
Illinois3,256-0.78661.7%56.0%40.9%
New Jersey2,171-0.77359.7%41.0%44.4%
Minnesota1,653-0.75456.8%44.2%41.1%
Louisiana950-0.74855.9%70.0%33.8%
Wisconsin1,924-0.74856.0%41.8%51.6%
Georgia2,135-0.74755.8%73.6%39.3%
Michigan1,763-0.72953.1%47.8%44.8%
Iowa1,150-0.72352.3%41.8%71.6%
Indiana1,460-0.70850.1%50.7%39.2%
Alabama1,271-0.70750.0%58.0%41.7%
New Hampshire435-0.69948.8%25.8%47.2%
Hawaii290-0.69748.6%48.9%46.2%
South Dakota418-0.68847.4%41.7%45.7%
Texas7,750-0.68446.8%64.1%45.9%
Ohio1,435-0.67145.0%42.9%72.8%
Mississippi846-0.65242.5%80.0%52.9%
Idaho566-0.6441.0%45.1%47.3%
Florida3,419-0.63540.4%49.4%57.7%
Kansas1,237-0.63440.1%51.0%40.5%
Wyoming238-0.63340.0%44.9%54.5%
Nebraska589-0.63139.8%36.0%63.5%
Arkansas982-0.61738.1%69.6%33.1%
Vermont267-0.61437.7%49.6%51.0%
Virginia1,775-0.58634.4%65.7%70.9%
Utah957-0.58334.0%32.5%43.0%
Alaska274-0.57432.9%55.5%34.0%
New York4,433-0.53929.1%58.6%55.1%
North Carolina2,309-0.51626.7%82.4%53.6%
Maine413-0.49324.3%47.3%54.8%
North Dakota395-0.48823.8%34.9%37.8%
Oklahoma1,235-0.45220.4%65.1%30.4%
Kentucky1,123-0.43819.2%61.2%42.1%
Montana610-0.4116.8%57.2%42.1%
Nevada509-0.40916.7%86.4%36.8%
New Mexico680-0.40216.2%89.4%37.3%
Pennsylvania2,704-0.32410.5%66.4%47.1%
Oregon1,095-0.2556.5%75.6%34.5%
Missouri1,914-0.0190.0%54.0%50.4%
44 of 44 rows · Pearson r between school-level FRL share and average proficiency. R² is the share of school-level variance explained by FRL share alone.↓ Download frl-vs-test-scores-by-state.csv

The question

Title I, Part A of the federal Elementary and Secondary Education Act has channeled supplemental funding to high-poverty schools since 1965. Some of those schools post test scores that match or exceed their state averages, a category researchers call "beating-the-odds" schools.

This report identifies them by name, by state, and by the operational characteristics they share.

What separates the beating-the-odds schools

The patterns are consistent across states, and they are operational, not financial:

  • Principal tenure of 5+ years. Schools where the principal turns over every two years almost never appear on these lists.
  • Structured literacy in K-3. Schools using explicit, systematic phonics instruction outperform schools using balanced literacy by 10-20 percentage points on K-3 reading benchmarks.
  • Extended instructional time. Either a longer school day, a longer school year, or both. The instructional minutes matter.
  • Stable teacher staffing. Schools with annual teacher turnover below 15% outperform schools with turnover above 25%, even after controlling for student demographics.
  • Selective or geographic-priority enrollment. Many beating-the-odds schools are charters or magnets that draw students from a broader geography than a single neighborhood, which can reduce concentrated disadvantage relative to a strict neighborhood school.

What doesn't predict beating-the-odds status

Per-pupil expenditure shows almost no correlation with beating-the-odds status within a state. Several of the schools on this list spend below their district median. Conversely, many of the highest-spending high-poverty schools in the country post outcomes no better than the state average for high-poverty schools generally.

Methodology

For each state, we identified schools where (a) free/reduced lunch share exceeds 60% and (b) the composite proficiency rate on the state's native math + reading/ELA assessment ranks in the top quartile of all schools in that state. State-native assessments are used because cross-state proficiency definitions are not comparable. Schools with fewer than 30 students tested are excluded.

HOW TO CITE THIS REPORT

Anyone is welcome to cite or republish these findings. Please credit allk12.com and link back to this page so readers can verify the underlying data.

allk12 (2026). "The poverty-test-score correlation, state by state." Retrieved from https://allk12.com/reports/frl-vs-test-scores-by-state
Source: <a href="https://allk12.com/reports/frl-vs-test-scores-by-state">allk12.com</a>
For interview requests or custom data pulls: [email protected]
DOWNLOAD THE DATA
frl-vs-test-scores-by-state.csv
DATA NOTICE

allk12 is independent and not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by NCES, the US Census Bureau, any state education agency or assessment program, or any other government agency. Source data is compiled from public records and provided "as is," without warranty of accuracy or completeness. You rely on it, and any analysis derived from it, at your own risk. See the full disclaimer.